A different war on Iran? [Updated]
Once again, author Seymour M. Hersh claims we are planning to attack Iran. He gets an awful lot of press every time he writes about this but his track record is not very good (he's 0 for 5 now). He has also previously admitted to making things up. Still, his word is gospel to the anti-war crowd, who bring up the hue and cry every time the New Yorker publishes another of his articles.
Since his predictions of an overt attack haven't panned out yet, he now claims we are going the covert route, using special ops on the ground in preparation for an invasion, and inciting certain ethnic minorities against the government. He may be partially correct here; there are several nations worried about Iran's nuclear ambitions, and I wouldn't be surprised if all of them have spies in the country. However, let's be realistic; it's unlikely that US special forces could operate there for very long without detection.
And there are a couple more big problems with Hersh's version. Once again, all of his sources are 100% anonymous. The other problem is, like many other "useful idiots" in the media, he casts doubts on Iran's nuclear ambitions and their involvement in Iraq. I always wondered why some people are always quick to believe that the United States is involved in conspiracies around the world, but they always give the benefit of the doubt to nations like Iran. Why is that?
I do have one big disadvantage as a blogger. I have a Top Secret security clearance (with SCI/TK access), and come across all kinds of classified information. So there are certain stories I deliberately do not write about. Even if they also appear in the media, I don't need to take the chance that I might inadvertently divulge any classified information.
This is one story that is safe, however, because I honestly have no knowledge of any covert activities in Iran whatsoever. But I wouldn't be terribly surprised; in fact, it would be very irresponsible not to engage in espionage here, since Iran's Mullahs have supported insurgents and interfered in Iraq for several years, unnecessarily prolonging the conflict there. Additionally, of course, there is the nuclear issue.
So what could covert operations do in Iran? Here is a possible list:
1) Per Hersh, enticing minority and dissident groups to make an open break with Iran, possibly committing acts of terrorism. This tactic would be unlikely to yield appreciable results, but it could be a painful distraction for Iran.
2) Scouting out nuclear structures, so that Iran doesn't lure the West to decoy facilities in a future strike.
3) Contacting Iranian scientists, and enticing them to leave the country, or even kidnapping/killing them if that fails.
4) Contact Iranian military leaders, for information about air defenses of their sensitive sites
5) Set up safe houses for future covert ops
6) Preparations for sabotage of sensitive facilities
7) Set up an informant network to find the IED factories in Iran and shut them down
The above are entirely guesses on my part; certainly, there are dozens more possibilities.
Israel has the advantage of having a sizable minority in the country already. Other gulf nations might even be involved. But US operators would stand out like a sore thumb; any activity the US is doing are likely through a spy network and therefore relatively low-key.
Some great comments on this at Michelle Malkin's site.
UPDATE 01/07/2008 05:11:00 PM:
I should have added this report to the mix. Just two days ago, tens of thousands of Iranian expatriates demonstrated in France in support of the People's Mujahideen, a group that supports armed insurrection in Iran, and is officially listed as a terrorist organization by many nations, including the US. It's strange that the mainstream media, as well as Iranian apologists (like Juan Cole) totally ignore this story.
This also illustrates one of the problems I have with asylum laws. Wouldn't there be a far better chance of real change in Iran if those tens of thousands were in Iran instead of Europe? Demonstrating in France is all well and good, but the average Iranian probably barely noticed, if they heard about it at all.
In any case, the will for change is there - they just need the right leadership, organization, and training.
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