Food riots vs. plenty: Egypt then and now

An Egyptian harvest - from the tomb of Sennedjem, Thebes, circa 1200 BC

Scarcity of bread is causing riots in Egypt. The government already subsidizes the bread, but that doesn't help with shortages - in fact, it tends to make them worse. At least ten people have already died in earlier violence. It also doesn't help that Egypt is also the world's biggest consumer of bread, with each adult eating 400 grams a day (compared to only 130 in France, the land of baquettes).

By world standards, Egyptians are poor but not unbearably so: the mean income is $5,400 a year, which comes out to about 15 dollars a day. Bread now costs 1 Egyptian pound per loaf (19 cents US, 12 cents EUR), which may be higher than normal, but would still be tolerable - if there was enough of it.

Here is the real problem: Egypt has to import grain, and if that supply is cut off the country will starve very quickly. But any student of ancient history might know that Egypt was once well-known as the breadbasket of the world of antiquity. The Nile river flooded its banks twice a year, making the land very fertile for farming. The country sold grain to the entire Roman Empire, and that resource was a key factor in the war between Cleopatra, Anthony, and Octavian (after which Egypt was annexed into the Empire).

So what changed? Simply put, too many people. Egypt's population at the time of Cleopatra was around 6 million. Today, in 2008, it stands at 81.7. Even the most modern farming techniques wouldn't bring enough yield to fulfil the demand. There isn't enough fertile land to plant in, and those almost 82 million thirsty people put a huge strain on that river. Specifically, the Aswan dam keeps badly needed nutrient sediment from reaching the Nile Delta (by far the most fertile section, where the river fans out and empties into the Mediterranean Sea).

The current "president", Hosni Mubarak (who has been in office for a mere 26 years), is calling on the UN to bail him out of this crisis. Maybe he could start by looking at his own country first. The current population growth rate is 1.7%, and shows no signs of stopping soon. The fact that the country already had to subsidize a staple item means that all they were doing is delaying the problem, not solving it.



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