The second Al-Mahdi uprising & Basra

The first was April 2004. Coalition authorities shut down Muqtada Al-Sadr's newspaper in Najaf. Soon after, his followers (the Al-Mahdi army), were in open revolt and decided to directly engage in combat with US forces. They took such heavy casualties that they retreated and have remained relatively quiet ever since. Until now.

The international zone (the "Green Zone") has come under indirect fire attack and Basra is particularly out of control. I'm not going to discuss the current situation in depth because it is already being covered in all the major media. But it's important to keep in mind that this is the same Basra that British troops left for the Iraqis to govern back in September of last year, as they withdrew to the city outskirts. You can assume that Basra is simply a miniature example of what will happen to the entire country if the Coalition pulled out right now.

It's also worth remembering that the Al-Mahdi Army is different now than it was in 2004. By his own admission, Al-Sadr doesn't have much control over his rogue militias, and without a unified command, they have even less of a chance in opposing coalition forces than they had four years ago (and their chances were slim even then).