Sadr blinks

Of course, he had to sooner or later. I called my last post a "test for three", but maybe I should have called it a "test for four" instead. There was one other group who had something at stake here, the Mahdi militia:

Iraqi Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr has ordered his fighters off the streets of Basra and other cities in an effort to end clashes with security forces.

He said in a statement that his movement wanted the Iraqi people to stop the bloodshed and maintain the nation's independence and stability.

Of course, some of them aren't listening. One wonders where his concern was just this past week when he was urging his people to fight other Iraqis?

Six days into the battle to purge Basra of militia influence, the fighting has engulfed other parts of Iraq and the death count has passed 250. Among the casualties may also be Britain's contention that it was right to hand the city over to Iraqi control in the first place.

Some people accuse the US of fighting the Iraq war without a clear plan, but look at the competition - Sadr gets impatient with the Prime Minister and encourages his people to fight (he doesn't really have enough tight control to order them). When they do, he orders them to withdraw as soon as things become hot. The result is that many lives are lost with nothing else gained whatsoever. If he had a secret deal with Iran to soften up the country as a prelude to invasion, this might make some sense.

However, I can guarantee you that spy photos would show Iranian movements along the border long before an invasion was prepared.

So what is Sadr's plan? He doesn't really have one except to flex his muscle to maintain his relevancy in the country. No matter how popular he is, he can't take over the country by himself. He can't even take one city and hold it for very long. Why? Because while in the short term he might (I emphasize might) be able to overwhelm the Iraqi Army through attacks and by encouraging defections, he would still need to deal with the Sunni militias who will never just roll over and play dead, not to mention Coalition forces, whom he doesn't stand a prayer against.

Moreover, even any gains he makes are entirely short term. He can't field an army for very long; he doesn't have anything to pay them with. The Mahdi Army doesn't get oil revenues or US loans. So for the most part, militia members live very frugally or have to supplement their salaries by other means. How long does that last? While a job with the Iraqi police or Army might suck, at least it pays something.

This is why I feel many of these reports about Iraqi Army deserting their posts may be exaggerated. It's difficult for any deserter to return to his unit, and even more difficult if he left with a weapon or vehicle. And that means no way for the typical soldier to support his own family and no future prospects.

All this, of course, leads to one obvious question. Hasn't the time to arrest this man long passed?



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