The Shield of Achilles: UK population soaring [Updated]

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

UK population soaring [Updated]

Today, the United Kingdom's office of official statistics released a report that is already making serious political waves in the country. It predicts the the UK's population will grow to 65 million by 2016, and 77 million by 2051. This is higher than the previous best estimate, which predicted an already alarming 69 million by 2051.

What the articles don't tell you, is that this is all the more remarkable considering that emigration from the UK is at its highest level in years. So how is this possible? If you are regular reader to this blog, you can probably guess: immigration.

Even the BBC, which normally cheers immigration in every form called this "a wake-up call to think about how the process of absorbing population growth was managed".

Simply put, native British are leaving their island, while immigrants are arriving in greater numbers, and having more children. In an article back in June, I already pointed out how the country had a shock when a study by the London Times found that the #2 most popular baby boy's name in the country was now Mohammed, and set to become #1 by next year.

Even today's 60 million is a far cry from the 2 million or so living in Britain during the early Middle Ages. And even then, the population had become too large for the island to support hunter-gatherers anymore. People had to grow food or starve. Now they have to import it or starve...

Numbers matter. This is one issue I wish the anti-racists, the immigration advocates, or the "world without borders" crowd would address. Crying about the racism of nativists or immigration restrictionists is all well and good, but then you need to provide your own answer to the question: how many people is too much? Because the ugly truth is, you either have to face it now or face it later. There is a limit to how many people a nation can hold. You and I may disagree on where that limit is exactly, but there is a limit nonetheless. No matter how much you value immigration and diversity, elementary physics dictate that a net population increase simply can't go on forever. And simply calling your opponents "racist" won't change that.

Meanwhile, films such as V for Vendetta, or Children of Men, try to scare us the other way, warning what happens if immigration restriction goes all the way - without even considering what will happen if it doesn't...

To be fair, I'm sure that Britain could hold a lot more people than today's 60 million. But is that desirable? More population means greater environmental degradation and land encroachment, more food needs to be imported, and simply less space for people to enjoy their lives. This is more than just an academic consideration. Every year the population increases it becomes just slightly more difficult to find a parking spot, enjoy space at the beach, watch rabbits run across the yard or even find a cemetery that's not full (Americans reading this site might think I'm joking, but in many countries, that is a real problem).

Right now, the UK's population density is 246 people per square kilometer. If these population projections hold (and they may be underestimates), by 2051 the UK will end up with a density of 317, over ten times that of the USA (31) and comparable to countries like Israel, Sri Lanka, or India. What happens when it goes higher? If unchecked, the UK will suffer the same fate as Bangladesh, a smaller country that allowed its population to rise above 150 million and its density hit 1045. It has no forests left. At all. Here is a description of their land usage from the CIA World Factbook:

many people are landless and forced to live on and cultivate flood-prone land; water-borne diseases prevalent in surface water; water pollution, especially of fishing areas, results from the use of commercial pesticides; ground water contaminated by naturally occurring arsenic; intermittent water shortages because of falling water tables in the northern and central parts of the country; soil degradation and erosion; deforestation; severe overpopulation

UK, thy future is being shaped right now. Do something about it.

UPDATE Oct 24, 2007 02:09:00 PM:
Expat Yank points out the water shortage in connection with this population increase. That's never a good thing.